Previously, we determined that near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 would not threaten the Earth in the 2030s (or on any other near-term apparition). But the possibility of an impact on our Large Achondrite satellite had not been ruled out yet. Should YR4 impact our natural satellite, it would, at best, serve as an impact experiment, and at worst threaten our (artificial) satellites with debris.
We now have better data, over a longer time span of YR4 orbits- a longer “observing arc.” The longer the observing arc, the more decimal places you can put on its trajectory- and thus, its position at any point in the future. We have, weeks ago, successfully used the James Webb Space Telescope to make a difficult observation of YR4, and the data is now in. There will be no impact, Earth or otherwise, in 2032:
https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Asteroid_2024_YR4_will_not_impact_the_Moon
ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2024 YR4&view=OPC
Also note: a second team, via a second method, came to the same conclusion. The preprint:
Deen, S. Lam, D. 2024 YR4: Identification of Possible Precoveries in 2016 IPTF Data www.arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449
Deen and Lam, having one orbit solution for YR4, traced its trajectory backwards. Using that speculative position, they searched for instances where telescopes had caught the asteroid, unaware- in other words, a “precovery.” That precovery, stretching back in time, lengthens the observing arc. With a longer observing arc (backwards this time, unlike the JWST result), they could sharpen the orbit solution. And that sharper orbit solution then ruled out the 2032 impact(s).
Forward, backward, or both: we now have the data to say, with even more confidence, that 2024 YR4 will not kill you.