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Home » Note, Paper: Pertinent Uncertainties

Note, Paper: Pertinent Uncertainties

Nice issue (mid-month this time) of Icarus for 15 March (vol. 447):

Colazo, M. Oszkiewicz, D. Poźniak, P. et al.  Detectability of asteroid phase coloring based on phase curves obtained from large spectro-photometric surveys  Art 116891  .2025.116891
Galiullin, M. I. Glamazda, D. V. Kuznetsov, E. D.  Physical properties of seven near-Earth asteroids from photometric observations  Art 116890  .2025.116890
Snodgrass, C. Mazzotta Epifani, E. Tubiana, C. et al. Considerations on the process of target selection for the Comet Interceptor mission  Art 116887  .2025.116887
Makadia, R. Chesley, S. R. Farnocchia, D. et al.  Keyhole-aware target site selection for kinetic impact missions to near-Earth asteroids  Art 116915  .2025.116915
Neesemann, A. van Gasselt, S. Riedel, C.  Revisiting the crater-based age of Cerealia Facula: High-resolution XMO7 data, measurement uncertainties, and chronological frame… Art 116908  .2025.116908
Johnston, C. O. Mazaheri, A. Stern, E. C.  A perspective on the luminous efficiency approach for meteoroid mass estimation  Art 116922  .2025.116922

Multiple projects (even before Vera Rubin’s LSST) are sweeping the skies for transient events, including passing asteroids. If the skies are being swept, that means some asteroids will be caught multiple times- face-on to the Sun (“low phase angle”) and not (crescent phase, or “high phase angle”). Different phase angles can tell us of the body, and Colazo et al. tell us of their attempts at different angles.

Again, the number of asteroids is large, and larger than the number of telescopes we devote to them. Galiullin et al. provide sorely-needed follow-up, besides just a dot of light traveling through the night sky. We need more information than that to turn these into little worlds.

The Comet Interceptor mission broke ground as the first mission approved with no target identified yet. It may be the first mission to reach the launch pad with no target identified. Aside from the three backup comets, how will that target be chosen? Chances are, the Vera Rubin Observatory will detect candidates, but then what? Rubin may actually find multiple choices.

Similarly, we now have a planetary defense mission under our belt (DART). Now that we know the general idea is valid, we want to put more decimal places on it. Should we strike incoming asteroids slightly off-center (or at a specific time), to better ensure deflection? Billiards comes to mind…

Speaking of follow-up: The Dawn mission gave us a trove of data on asteroid (1) Ceres. But what the probe couldn’t see is backwards in time. At least, not directly. Can we use crater counting and other methods to put an age number on Ceres features? Time affects body cooling and water freezing.

Speaking of sweeping the skies: meteor astronomers use super-wide-field cameras to catch those unpredictable fireballs. The resulting trail tells us of the object that entered, and formed it. But how much do we know, really? There are lots of variables here, not just a light show.

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